2023 is a shining year of gold.
Undoubtedly, the radiance of gold is too dazzling this year. From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, gold has continuously reached new highs, and the topic of gold prices has reached a hot search high. If you were fortunate enough to buy a gold bar at the beginning of this year, congratulations, your earnings have reached an astonishing 20%.
The soaring price of gold continues to drive the enthusiasm of Chinese people for gold consumption. 2023 is coming to an end, what has the gold market experienced this year? A new year has begun, what will be the trend of gold in 2024? What kind of changes will it bring to the jewelry industry. As a senior custom ring packaging wholesale factory, we also pay equal attention to the pricing of gold items. Will gold continue to soar?
Good gold business with high demand for funds
The owner of a gold shop born in the 1980s sold two houses to hoard gold
On the 2023 hot search list, topics related to gold consumption always dominate the high rankings. On March 29th of this year, a report by Chao News titled "Before this round of gold skyrocketing, relocated households in Hangzhou hoarded over 3 million yuan of gold bars" sparked heated discussions. At that time, Hu Guoxiao, who was engaged in jewelry wholesale business, told reporters that gold started with hot sales this year, with sales increasing by more than 30% in the first three months.
At the end of the year, the Chao News reporter once again approached Hu Guoxiao and wanted to ask how the gold business had been this year. Unexpectedly, the answer on the other end of the phone was: "I don't have time to talk to you at all."
So recently, trendy news reporters came to Hangzhou International Jewelry City to find Hu Guoxiao and see how busy he was.
Although the outdoor temperature has dropped to below zero, Jewelry City is bustling with activity. From a distance, Mr. Hu can be seen greeting customers in the store. Due to the impact of this wave, the demand for ring packaging wholesale has surged in the past year. As a result, we have added many related equipment and have more abundant custom ring packaging wholesale.
During a brief chat with reporters, several old customers from Shaoxing, Ningbo, Yuhang and other places purchased a batch of new products such as bracelets, zodiac dragons, and ancient gold bracelets from Hu Guoxiao's store, totaling nearly 2 kilograms.
Hu Guoxiao, 35 years old this year, has been engaged in jewelry wholesale for many years and can be considered a seasoned industry insider who has experienced wind and rain. "In 2013, we were grabbing gold. After ten years, we were grabbing gold again this year. At the beginning of the epidemic, everyone suddenly retaliated by buying gold. The gold processing factory's goods were all robbed, and the factory could not produce goods even after 24 hours of operation. I flew to the factory in Shenzhen to keep an eye on them, asking the boss to ship them to me."
If you're sure, just take a look. In March and April of this year, Hu Guoxiao listed two of his own residential properties. "A set of over 150 square meters and a set of over 130 square meters, the one in the north of Xiaoshan City is selling at a high price, while the other is a bit more remote and not too expensive. The two sets sold for a total of over 6 million yuan." Hu Guoxiao told reporters, "As soon as the money arrives, go hoard gold."
"All the funds are betting on gold, mainly based on years of experience and fundamental judgment." Hu Guoxiao said, looking back now, when these 6 million yuan hoarded gold, the gold price was still relatively low, and so far at least 30-40 yuan has been earned per gram.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of jewelry gold has increased by more than 100 yuan/gram, and such high prices still cannot stop consumers from buying gold. Mr. Hu revealed that the wholesale growth rate of gold in the store has remained above 30% all year round. "My wholesale end is good, reflecting the good business of downstream retail gold and high enthusiasm for buying gold." The main material for the ring is gold. With this wave of hot sales, the ring box packaging wholesale factories has also received attention. We have been scheduling orders for ring paper packaging wholesale for six months since the beginning of the year.
Three stage market trends
Ups and downs, ultimately reaching a new high
"This year, my friend circle has posted many K-line charts of gold prices. In 2023, international gold has broken historical records multiple times." Hu Guoxiao said, "Every time it reaches a new high, he is very excited, even if it is a decline, he is also very excited." If it falls, you can buy it right away. ""
The Chao News reporter also reviewed the gold trend since the beginning of this year, which can be roughly divided into three stages:
The first stage is the upward trend from January to early May. At the beginning of the year, the market's expectation of an economic recession in the United States intensified, coupled with the sudden crisis of Silicon Valley Bank and other small and medium-sized banks in March, which blocked the Federal Reserve's balance sheet contraction process. The expectation of interest rate hikes slowed down, and gold prices fluctuated upwards. On April 3, gold prices broke through $2000 per ounce. Subsequently, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectation, gold prices continued to soar. On May 4, spot gold broke a historical high of $2074.77 per ounce, At one point during the trading session, it rose above $2085.4 per ounce.
The second stage is the volatile market from May to September. With the easing of the crisis in small and medium-sized banks and the resilience of US economic data, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, both nominal and real interest rates have risen, and gold prices have also narrowed. The external gold price has fallen, especially on September 20th local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%. Five days later, gold prices began to plummet, falling below $1900. However, during this stage, the domestic gold price benefited from the depreciation of the renminbi and still saw a slight increase.
The third stage is the upward trend since October. As gold fell to an intra-year low of $1820.08 on October 5th, the market suddenly changed. On the one hand, the short-term safe haven demand caused by the outbreak of the Israeli Palestinian conflict surged, and on the other hand, as US inflation data further fell, Federal Reserve officials relaxed their stance. Market expectations for interest rate cuts gradually increased, and the combined impact led to a sustained rise in gold prices. Spot gold even rose more than $2100 per ounce, setting a new historical high.
In response to the soaring gold prices, central banks around the world are hoarding gold on a large scale in 2023. According to data from the World Gold Council, global central bank demand for gold increased by 14% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2023, reaching a record high of 800 tons; The net purchase amount of the central bank in the third quarter was 337 tons, the third highest quarterly net purchase amount in history.
On December 4th, gold prices reached a new high
Will gold prices hit new highs in 2024?
Industry insiders: Gold prices will continue to rise moderately next year
What will be the market trend for gold in 2024 after going through this skyrocketing year of 2023?
Hu Guoxiao told the Chao News reporter, "The price of gold has risen so much that more and more consumers have become aware of its value preservation and appreciation function. Anyway, I will continue to firmly believe in it next year." As he said this, several more customers came into the store to buy gold.
"I am more optimistic about 2024, and gold prices are expected to reach new highs." Zheng Hong, a senior macro and precious metal analyst at the Zhejiang Futures Research Center, said in an interview with Chao News that there are two main drivers for the gold trend in 2024.
Regardless of the direction of gold prices in 2024, we are a seasoned factory ring packaging wholesale. In addition to upgrading the production capacity of custom ring paper packaging box wholesale, we will also pay attention to flexible transformation. Even if there are major changes in goods in the future, our equipment will still be specific to the wholesale production of other categories of jewelry packaging boxes.
Zheng Hong believes that first and foremost, the Fed's interest rate cuts are driving investment demand. The current market expectations and dot matrix chart both indicate that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next year, which will drive nominal and real interest rates down, increase the attractiveness of gold investment, and currently, European and American gold ETF positions are still at a low level, with great room for growth.
Secondly, the demand for hedging stimulates the upward trend of gold prices. 2024 is the year of global elections, coupled with the Middle East situation and unpredictable geopolitical events, the demand for safe haven will increase. And central banks of various countries, especially those in emerging economies, are increasing their holdings of gold reserves, which will also stimulate an increase in gold demand.
A senior analyst from the International Department of a state-owned bank in Zhejiang Province told reporters that the most crucial factor affecting the trend of gold in 2024 is the strength of the US dollar index. Overall, the US dollar is bound to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, which is clearly beneficial for gold. At the same time, geopolitical events such as the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the global central bank's increase in gold holdings will provide support for the trend of gold. Against this backdrop, gold is expected to continue to strengthen and fluctuate at high levels, with a high probability of reaching new highs. However, overall, the possibility of a mild upward trend is greater.
Regarding household asset allocation, the analyst further pointed out that allocating some gold to households is a good thing and suitable for long-term holding. However, there may be better investment opportunities in the financial market next year, not necessarily precious metals.
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